Food Productivity Needs to Double By 2050

In 2050, the population will balloon to such an extent that farmers will be required to double food production. "We have 40 years in which to double agricultural output, but we have to do it in a sustainable fashion with the same amount of land, less water and reduced inputs," said Bill Lesher, executive director of Global Harvest Initiative, the consortium of major agricultural companies, including Archer Daniels Midland, Monsanto, DuPont and Deere & Co.

The comment was in relation to the agricultural productivity report, which was in conjunction with the Farm Foundation, NFP, a public policy group, and the U.S. department of Agriculture's Economics Research Service (ERS).

"We need to do more with less and we must start implementing measures and policies that increase productivity today," Lesher said.
And he's right. With current estimates, the global population in 2050 will be 9.2 billion, farmers and food production will need to get smarter with public and private investments in "science and technology" to boost agricultural productivity, according to the report.

The report said doubling agricultural output to meet global demand by 2050 will require an annual average growth of at least 1.75 percent in "total factor productivity" - defined as the increase in output per unit of total resources employed in production. Between 2000 and 2007, USDA's ERS estimates global agricultural total factor productivity growth averaged 1.4 percent per year.

"To close the gap without additional land and resources, we must increase the rate of productivity growth an average of 25 percent more per year over the next 40 years," said Neil Conklin, president of the Farm Foundation.

Currently cereals and root and tuber crops make up more than 60 percent of the global diet, but by 2050 the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization expects those staples will make up only 54 percent of food consumption, while animal proteins like meat and dairy, and vegetable oils will rise to nearly 40 percent of the global diet from about one-third today.

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